Branzan Advisors Commentary | March 2026
March 17, 2026
It’s been just over two weeks since the war with Iran started. The impact on various markets has been surprisingly minor aside from the oil markets. Volatility of oil prices has been high as traders try to assess the impact of the war on the supply of oil coming out of the Middle East. Since the war started, the price of oil (both WTI and Brent) has increased over 40%. Volatility remains high and daily prices are moving significantly as oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz is unpredictable. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, in 2024 approximately 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption flowed through the Strait of Hormuz. Disruption in shipping of oil and other petroleum products through the Strait has an immediate impact on product prices.
In the U.S., consumers have experienced this impact firsthand through quick repricing of gasoline. Anyone that has filled up their vehicle in the last couple weeks is painfully aware of the increase in the price of a gallon of gas. While the price of gas is the most immediate and visible impact to consumers, we believe a sustained increase in the price of oil will drive overall transportation costs higher resulting in elevated prices for food, air travel, and other petroleum-based products. As the war continues and oil prices remain high, we expect inflation to start to accelerate. Fortunately, due to technological advances U.S. oil production has increased significantly over the past decade which has helped moderate the price impact of a war in the Middle East.
Unless there is a quick end to this war, we expect inflation in the U.S. to increase which may cause an already shaky economy to slow down further. On March 13th, the Bureau of Economic Analysis revised the 4th quarter 2025 real GDP growth to 0.7% compared to 4.4% in the 3rd quarter 2025. The weakness in the 4th quarter resulted from a slowdown in consumer spending and a decrease in government expenditures. While government expenditures may increase in the 1st quarter 2026 due to defense spending, we expect inflationary pressures (especially higher gasoline prices) will further restrict consumer spending resulting in weak economic growth.
The Federal Reserve meets again this week. As we have mentioned before, the Fed is between a rock and hard place. The economy is weakening at the same time inflation is increasing. Too large of an interest rate cut could further accelerate inflation. Too small of a cut (or no cut) could put additional pressure on an already weakening economy. Stagflation is a tough needle to thread.
As an asset manager, we are constantly monitoring risks in our investment portfolios and keeping an eye out for opportunities. We continue to hold precious metals and believe their role in a portfolio helps preserve purchasing power in an inflationary environment. We are bullish on domestic energy, particularly mineral rights and oil and gas royalties, as energy continues to be a key component of AI datacenters. Real estate has had a rough few years, but we are beginning to see some interesting opportunities as values have started to adjust to a higher interest rate environment. Like many investors, we are watching private credit closely to assess whether the increasing redemption requests in private credit interval funds presage a deeper credit issue. In this ever-changing environment, we try to remain disciplined and opportunistic by attempting to protect purchasing power while selectively pursuing areas where shifting markets and asset values may create attractive long-term value.
We appreciate your continued support and confidence. Thank you for your partnership.
Best,
Branzan Investment Advisors
THIS LETTER CONTAINS FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT PROVE TO BE TRUE. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO ASSURANCE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
Form ADV Part II and the Privacy Policy for Branzan Investment Advisors, Inc., are available upon request.
The material provided herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy an interest in any Branzan investment vehicle. Any such offering would be accompanied by, and made in accordance with, the investment’s offering memorandum.
This communication is intended only for the recipient, and is not intended for duplication or redistribution to third parties without the prior consent of Branzan Investment Advisors, Inc.